Manage your bankroll Part1
You can do this in many different ways. First, don’t invest your entire weekly bankroll in one tournament. This goes back to eliminating variance as much as possible. Play multiple tournaments- each representing no more than 20% of your weekly bankroll. Ideally 10% should be the number you’re shooting for. Say you have a $100 budget and you play 9 games at $11 a piece. You need to win 5 to come out ahead and every win above 5 represents a big statistical increase in profit. Third, learn how to target players for your lineups.
Each week you need to target three types of players. The first type are value picks. These are players whose prices are much lower than their skill-set and/or matchup should reflect. Calculating value can be done a number of ways. However, the best way is to look at it in a purely mathematical manner. On Draftkings, the average total score needed to win a cash game is 125. With a salary cap of $50,000 and a total of nine players on your team, you need each player to score roughly 2.5 points for every $1000 of their price tag. Because your salary cap is $50,000 and you need 125 points, 125/50 = 2.5.
Therefore you need 2.5 points for every $1000 you spend. On Fanduel, the average score to win a cash game is 111. Using the same math as before, but with the $60,000 salary cap and 111 target, you only need about 2 points (closer to 1.8) for every $1000 your player costs. With this information, it becomes much easier to find the players who hold real value. However, knowing how many points a player needs to score in order for him to be successful on your team is only half the battle. How can you predict whether he will actually perform?
First, check with Vegas. Vegas does more than set point spreads and totals for games. Each week Vegas sets lines for individual player prop bets that can provide great insight to a players projected performance. Look and see what the over/ under for stats like total yards or receptions are for a player and use those numbers as a building block. Vegas is rarely off by much.
Second, look online for expert projections for that player. There are tons of fantasy football sites full of experts, some free and some not, that provide expected stats for each and every player. These predictions are not nearly accurate enough to be considered scientific. However, a consensus of experts coupled with a favorable projection from Vegas is about as close as you’ll get to predicting the future. Finally, create your own stat prediction. Here are the factors you should always consider when trying to determine a player’s potential on any given week:
Team’s matchup – does this player’s team have a favorable matchup? Check Vegas again for this. Look for the over/ under and the point spread to see just how many points vegas expects this player’s team to score. I.e. this player’s team is -7 with an o/u of 50. This is a favorable team matchup because not only is it supposed to be a high scoring game, but your player’s team is expected to score 28 of the 50 total points.
With an expectation of 4 touchdowns to the whole team, if your player has a big enough role in the offense, all signs point to at least one going to him. Touchdowns are crucial to a players success. You can also look at things like average offensive yards allowed, average rushing, passing, receiving yards allowed etc for the player in question’s opponent. Teams rarely deviate too far from their averages so they are a good foundation for calculating a player’s projected points.
These are justsome of the questions you need to be asking, but ultimately you need to be sure that the player represents a large enough factor in his team’s offense to to rely on him. For example, the Patriots have the most productive offense in the NFL right now. However, Danny Amendola, the Patriots’ WR2 is of insignificant fantasy value because he is so overshadowed by Edelman, Lewis, and Gronkowski.